{"id":7525,"date":"2026-04-08T10:41:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T13:41:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oexpressobr.com.br\/?p=7525"},"modified":"2026-04-08T10:41:23","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T13:41:23","slug":"lula-lidera-primeiro-turno-e-empata-com-flavio-bolsonaro-em-simulacoes-de-segundo-turno","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oexpressobr.com.br\/?p=7525","title":{"rendered":"Lula lidera primeiro turno e empata com Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro em simula\u00e7\u00f5es de segundo turno"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

O cen\u00e1rio para a sucess\u00e3o presidencial de 2026 come\u00e7a a ganhar contornos de alta polariza\u00e7\u00e3o. Novas pesquisas de inten\u00e7\u00e3o de voto, divulgadas nesta primeira quinzena de abril de 2026<\/strong>, confirmam que o presidente Lula (PT)<\/strong> mant\u00e9m a dianteira na corrida pelo primeiro turno, mas enfrenta um cen\u00e1rio de indefini\u00e7\u00e3o absoluta e empate t\u00e9cnico em eventuais disputas de segundo turno, especialmente contra o senador Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (PL)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os n\u00fameros do primeiro turno<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

De acordo com o levantamento mais recente do instituto Meio\/Ideia<\/strong>, registrado no TSE sob o protocolo BR-00605\/2026, Lula aparece com 40,4%<\/strong> das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto na pesquisa estimulada. Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro consolida-se como o principal nome da oposi\u00e7\u00e3o, registrando 37%<\/strong>.
Abaixo da polariza\u00e7\u00e3o direta, outros nomes tentam viabilizar uma “terceira via”, mas ainda com baixa penetra\u00e7\u00e3o:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Ronaldo Caiado (PSD):<\/strong> 6,5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Romeu Zema (Novo):<\/strong> 3%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Renan Santos (Miss\u00e3o):<\/strong> 3%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Indecisos, brancos e nulos:<\/strong> Somam aproximadamente 9,5%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    O n\u00f3 do segundo turno: Empate t\u00e9cnico<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    A maior novidade dos dados de abril reside nas simula\u00e7\u00f5es de segundo turno. Pela primeira vez de forma t\u00e3o acentuada, a vantagem de Lula foi absorvida pela margem de erro. No embate direto entre o atual presidente e o filho “01” de Jair Bolsonaro, os n\u00fameros mostram:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro:<\/strong> 45,8%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Lula:<\/strong> 45,5%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
      \n

      Nota do analista:<\/strong> O crescimento de Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro entre janeiro e abril (de 36% para 45,8%) indica uma transfer\u00eancia eficiente de capital pol\u00edtico da base bolsonarista, enquanto o presidente Lula parece ter atingido um teto de cristal pr\u00f3ximo aos 46% nas simula\u00e7\u00f5es de confronto direto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Fatores determinantes: Rejei\u00e7\u00e3o e Anistia<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

      A pesquisa tamb\u00e9m explorou os sentimentos que podem decidir o pleito. A rejei\u00e7\u00e3o de ambos os l\u00edderes continua elevada, ultrapassando os 50%<\/strong>, o que torna o eleitorado de centro o “fiel da balan\u00e7a”.
      Outro ponto que entrou na pauta eleitoral foi a anistia<\/strong> relacionada aos eventos de 8 de janeiro. Segundo o Meio\/Ideia:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • 41%<\/strong> s\u00e3o contra qualquer tipo de anistia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • 32%<\/strong> s\u00e3o favor\u00e1veis \u00e0 medida, inclusive para Jair Bolsonaro.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • 21%<\/strong> apoiam anistia apenas para manifestantes, excluindo lideran\u00e7as.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        Compara\u00e7\u00e3o com outros candidatos<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        Embora Fl\u00e1vio seja o advers\u00e1rio mais competitivo no momento, Lula mant\u00e9m vantagens mais folgadas contra outros governadores de oposi\u00e7\u00e3o. Contra Ronaldo Caiado<\/strong>, o petista venceria por 45% a 39%<\/strong>. Contra Romeu Zema<\/strong>, o placar ficaria em 44,7% a 38,7%<\/strong>.
        Com a proximidade das conven\u00e7\u00f5es partid\u00e1rias, o governo busca agora formas de reduzir a resist\u00eancia no Sudeste, especificamente em Minas Gerais, estado que historicamente reflete o resultado nacional e onde os levantamentos da AtlasIntel<\/strong> tamb\u00e9m apontam um equil\u00edbrio milim\u00e9trico entre as for\u00e7as de esquerda e direita.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

        <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        O cen\u00e1rio para a sucess\u00e3o presidencial de 2026 come\u00e7a a ganhar contornos de alta polariza\u00e7\u00e3o. Novas pesquisas de inten\u00e7\u00e3o de voto, divulgadas nesta primeira quinzena […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAowsargCw:productID":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politica"],"desktop_mode_lock":null,"desktop_mode_contributors":[],"desktop_mode_attached_media":[7526],"yoast_head":"\nLula lidera primeiro turno e empata com Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro em simula\u00e7\u00f5es de segundo turno - O Expresso BR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/oexpressobr.com.br\/?p=7525\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lula lidera primeiro turno e empata com Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro em simula\u00e7\u00f5es de segundo turno - O Expresso BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O cen\u00e1rio para a sucess\u00e3o presidencial de 2026 come\u00e7a a ganhar contornos de alta polariza\u00e7\u00e3o. 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