\u200bO Comit\u00ea de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria (Copom) do Banco Central, sob a lideran\u00e7a de Roberto Campos Neto, confirmou em sua ata mais recente uma postura de “serenidade e modera\u00e7\u00e3o” diante de um cen\u00e1rio econ\u00f4mico que se tornou significativamente mais desafiador. Na \u00faltima reuni\u00e3o, o colegiado optou por reduzir a taxa Selic em 0,25 ponto percentual, fixando-a em 10,50% ao ano, interrompendo o ciclo de cortes mais intensos de 0,50 ponto que vinha sendo praticado anteriormente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u200bA decis\u00e3o reflete uma preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o direta com dois pilares que sustentam a pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria brasileira: a instabilidade geopol\u00edtica internacional e a desancoragem das expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o interna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u200bO cen\u00e1rio global \u00e9 apontado pelo Banco Central como um dos principais fatores de risco. O acirramento de conflitos no Oriente M\u00e9dio tem gerado volatilidade nos pre\u00e7os das commodities<\/em>, especialmente do petr\u00f3leo, o que impacta diretamente os custos de transporte e alimentos no Brasil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u200bAl\u00e9m disso, a resili\u00eancia da economia norte-americana e a incerteza sobre quando o Federal Reserve (Fed) iniciar\u00e1 o seu pr\u00f3prio ciclo de queda de juros fortalecem o d\u00f3lar. Esse movimento encarece as importa\u00e7\u00f5es brasileiras e pressiona o \u00cdndice Nacional de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u200bNo plano interno, embora a infla\u00e7\u00e3o cheia tenha mostrado sinais de arrefecimento, os membros do Copom destacaram que a infla\u00e7\u00e3o de servi\u00e7os \u2014 aquela mais ligada ao mercado de trabalho e ao consumo \u2014 continua resiliente. O mercado de trabalho aquecido, com taxas de desemprego em n\u00edveis baixos, dificulta uma queda mais r\u00e1pida dos pre\u00e7os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u200bAs expectativas coletadas pelo Relat\u00f3rio Focus para os anos de 2024 e 2025 permanecem acima da meta central de 3,0%. Para o Copom, essa “desancoragem” exige que a taxa de juros permane\u00e7a em patamar restritivo por tempo suficiente para garantir que a infla\u00e7\u00e3o retorne ao alvo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u200bA \u00faltima reuni\u00e3o foi marcada por uma divis\u00e3o in\u00e9dita no comit\u00ea, com quatro membros indicados pelo governo atual votando por um corte maior (0,50 p.p.), enquanto os outros cinco, incluindo o presidente Campos Neto, optaram pela cautela de 0,25 p.p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u200bA ata ressalta que “o momento exige perseveran\u00e7a” e que o ritmo futuro da taxa de juros depender\u00e1 totalmente da evolu\u00e7\u00e3o dos dados. N\u00e3o h\u00e1, no momento, um compromisso com novos cortes, o que indica que o Banco Central pode manter a Selic est\u00e1vel nas pr\u00f3ximas reuni\u00f5es caso o cen\u00e1rio de incerteza persista.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u200bO Comit\u00ea de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria (Copom) do Banco Central, sob a lideran\u00e7a de Roberto Campos Neto, confirmou em sua ata mais recente uma postura de 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